Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 0.028313 0.032244 0.036548 0.041615 0.047423 0.053877 0.061604
2025-01-12 0.021654 0.026848 0.033058 0.041046 0.051078 0.063297 0.079364
2025-01-19 0.017568 0.023043 0.029982 0.039454 0.052106 0.068503 0.091492
2025-01-26 0.015833 0.021758 0.029639 0.040944 0.056846 0.078558 0.110703
2025-02-02 0.014501 0.020746 0.029406 0.042376 0.061460 0.088739 0.131105
2025-02-09 0.013420 0.019900 0.029227 0.043748 0.065996 0.099143 0.152907
2025-02-16 0.012094 0.018515 0.028071 0.043471 0.067941 0.105781 0.169619
2025-02-23 0.011104 0.017509 0.027341 0.043703 0.070603 0.113676 0.189079
2025-03-02 0.010079 0.016330 0.026202 0.043124 0.071831 0.119309 0.205328
2025-03-09 0.009480 0.015766 0.025967 0.043963 0.075436 0.129150 0.229780
2025-03-16 0.008711 0.014838 0.025036 0.043508 0.076735 0.135120 0.247965
2025-03-23 0.008330 0.014529 0.025107 0.044777 0.081161 0.146975 0.278200
2025-03-30 0.007514 0.013400 0.023681 0.043276 0.080491 0.149682 0.291772
2025-04-06 0.006905 0.012586 0.022741 0.042573 0.081235 0.155101 0.311320
2025-04-13 0.006232 0.011591 0.021377 0.040926 0.079975 0.156497 0.322843
2025-04-20 0.006048 0.011493 0.021663 0.042474 0.085136 0.171036 0.363349
2025-04-27 0.005868 0.011383 0.021911 0.043962 0.090314 0.186136 0.406901
2025-05-04 0.005690 0.011261 0.022122 0.045388 0.095499 0.201779 0.453579
2025-05-11 0.005340 0.010761 0.021537 0.045100 0.096997 0.209684 0.483625
2025-05-18 0.005073 0.010409 0.021218 0.045342 0.099663 0.220402 0.521545
2025-05-25 0.004747 0.009905 0.020541 0.044739 0.100376 0.226798 0.549855
2025-06-01 0.004581 0.009726 0.020533 0.045612 0.104535 0.241526 0.600548
2025-06-08 0.004311 0.009298 0.019954 0.045139 0.105501 0.248841 0.633399